Upside Breakout

An Upside Breakout is a Classic Pattern and considered a bullish signal, marking a breakout from a trading range to start a new uptrend.

An Upside Breakout occurs when the price of a financial instrument breaks out through the top of a trading range.

Trading Considerations

Inbound Trend
The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

Criteria that Support

Duration of Trading Range

The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The longer the duration of the trading range the more significant the breakout.

Narrowness of Trading Range
The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a small difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it narrow) then the breakout is considered stronger and more reliable.

Support or Resistance
Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

Moving Average
Prices which quickly move 50% above the 200-day Moving Average strongly support this pattern.

Moving Average Trend
Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. The Moving Average should change direction within the duration of the pattern and should now be heading in the direction indicated by the pattern.

Volume
A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refute

Duration of the Trading Range
The duration of the trading range for which the breakout occurred can provide an indication of the strength of the breakout. The shorter the duration of the trading range the less significant the breakout.

Narrowness of the Trading Range
The "narrowness" of the trading range can also be used to gauge the breakout. To determine the narrowness of the trading range compare the upper boundary with the lower boundary of the trading range. If the trading range has a large difference between the upper and lower boundary (making it wide) then the breakout is considered weaker and less reliable.

No Volume Spike on Confirmation
The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Moving Average Trend
Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. A Moving Average that is trending in the opposite direction to that indicated by the pattern is an indication that this pattern is less reliable.

Short Inbound Trend
An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)

A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) is a Classic Pattern and considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue.


A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) shows two converging trendlines, the lower one is ascending, the upper one is descending. The formation occurs because prices are reaching both lower highs and higher lows. The pattern will display two highs touching the upper (descending) trendline and two lows touching the lower (ascending) trendline.

This pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out of the triangle formation to close above the upper (descending) trendline.

Volume is an important factor to consider. Typically, volume follows a reliable pattern: volume should diminish as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range of highs and lows. However, when the breakout occurs, there should be a noticeable increase in volume. If this volume picture is not clear, investors should be cautious about decisions based on this triangle.

Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristics for this pattern.

Occurrence of a Breakout
Technical analysts pay close attention to how long the Triangle takes to develop to its apex. The general rule is that prices should break out - clearly penetrate the upper trendline - somewhere between three-quarters and two-thirds of the horizontal width of the formation. The break out, in other words, should occur well before the pattern reaches the apex of the Triangle. The closer the breakout occurs to the apex the less reliable the formation.

Duration of the Triangle
The Triangle is a relatively short-term pattern. While long-term triangles do form, the most reliable triangles take between one and three months.

Volume
Investors should see volume decreasing as the pattern progresses toward the apex of the Triangle. At breakout, however, there should be a noticeable increase in volume.

Trading Considerations

Duration of the Pattern
Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to reach its target. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration.

Target Price
The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

Inbound Trend
The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

Confirm the Breakout
To avoid taking an inadvisable position in a stock, some investors advise waiting a few days to determine whether the breakout signals that the price is ready to move. A key sign of a possible false move is low volume. If there's no pick up in volume around the breakout, investors should be wary. Typically, a good breakout from a Triangle formation will be accompanied by a definite surge in volume.

Criteria that Support

Support and Resistance
Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

Price moves above Resistance Level
You can also check that the prices following the pattern have crossed above a key resistance level such as the 200 day moving average. This would provide extra confirmation that the trend is poised to continue upward.

Volume
A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume during the duration of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refute

No Volume Spike on Breakout
The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Short Inbound Trend
An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Price moves below Support Level
If post pattern prices have dropped below a key support level such as a 200 day moving average, this could be a temporary pullback (which is common) or perhaps a sign that the previous bullish signal was actually a false signal - sometimes called a bull trap. When such a pullback is encountered, one helpful clue is to look at volume. If pricing pulled back on high volume this may signify a failure of the original bullish pattern - sometimes leading to a potentially profitable bearish play. If there is not much volume, then it could simply be a temporary pullback to the breakout level and prices may change direction and continue upward after all.

Underlying Behavior

This pattern is a result of converging trendlines of support and resistance which give this Triangle pattern its distinctive shape. This occurs because the trading action gets tighter and tighter until the market breaks out with great force. Buyers and sellers find themselves in a period where they are not sure where the market is headed. Their uncertainty is marked by their actions of buying and selling sooner, making the range of the price movements increasingly tight. As the range between the peaks and troughs marking the progression of price narrows, the trendlines meet at the "apex" located at the right of the chart.

The narrowing of the trading action and the decreasing volume of trade reflect the indecision in the market. Finally consensus or decision in the market is reached and this is reflected as the price breaks out of the triangle. A spike in volume on this breakout date reflects stronger consensus that the stock should move in that direction.

Rounded Bottom

A Rounded Bottom is a Classic Pattern, which is considered a bullish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend.

Rounded Bottoms are elongated and U-shaped, and are sometimes referred to as rounding turns, bowls or saucers. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out above its moving average.
Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristic to look for in a Rounded Bottom.

Shape

The price pattern forms a gradual bowl shape. There should be an obvious bottom to the bowl. Price can fluctuate or be linear; however, the overall curve should be smooth and regular, without obvious spikes. For example, a V-shaped turn would not be considered a rounded bottom.

Volume

Volume tends to mirror the price pattern. Consequently, as the rounded bottom begins to descend, volume tends to decrease as bearishness wanes and investors become indecisive. Following a period of relative inactivity, at the bottom of the bowl, the price pattern starts its upward turn. As sentiment becomes more decisively bullish, volume tends to increase. When looking at volume in a rounded bottom pattern, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee note that "volume accelerates with the [price] trend until often it reaches a sort of climactic peak in a few days of almost 'vertical' price movement on the chart."

Duration of the Rounded Bottom

Rounded Bottoms are long-term patterns. Martin J. Pring identifies that the pattern can occur over a period of about 3 weeks, but can also be observed over several years.

Trading Considerations

Duration of the Pattern

The duration of the pattern indicates the significance of the price movement. John J. Murphy writes that rounded bottoms "are usually spotted on weekly or monthly charts that span several years. The longer they last, the more significant they become."

Target Price

Understandably, investors like to buy at the lowest possible price. However, even the most promising-looking rounded bottoms patterns can fail. To determine whether a downturn has bearish potential, watch the price at the bottom of the downturn. For a rounded bottom, the price tends to hover and bounce between an upper and lower price limit. You may observe this behavior for weeks or even years, as knowledgeable investors accumulate stock at the lowest possible price.

Clifford Pistolese advises that, "If well-informed, long-term investors are buying within the trading range, the eventual breakout will probably be to the upside." To manage risk, both Pistolese and Thomas N. Bulkowski suggest that investors buy stock when the breakout actually occurs.

Price may end higher or lower than it was at the beginning of the formation. After an upside breakout, technical analysts may use the starting price at the left side of the bowl to determine where the price may head. However, you will want to monitor the stock with interest.

Criteria that Support

Volume

Volume should parallel the price formation, dropping off as the pattern reaches the bottom, then increasing as the new uptrend is established.

Moving Average

Moving averages help to determine whether the rounded bottom has the potential for an upside breakout. For a rounded bottom, the price should cross the moving average when it begins to ascend. When this crossover occurs, the pattern is "confirmed".

There is an abundance of literature about moving averages if you are interested in understanding how they operate. In simple terms, the moving average can be used to detect a possible pattern success or failure. Typically, a moving average represents the closing price of a stock over a specified number of days, and can be used to predict the general direction of a stock. Depending on the type of stock, investors may decide to use a long, medium or short term moving average. For example, short duration patterns generally use a 50-day moving average, and longer patterns generally use a 200-day moving average.

Criteria that Refute

Shape

A formation is not a true rounded bottom when it does not involve a period of consolidation. Consolidation occurs following the descent when the price at the bottom of the pattern seems to bounce between an upper and lower limit. While, there are V-shaped patterns that yield successful returns, the rounded bottoms are a more reliable and predictable formation.

Underlying Behavior

A Rounded Bottom forms as investor sentiment shifts gradually from bearishness to bullishness. As the sentiment turns down toward the bottom, there is a drop off in trading volume due to the indecisiveness in the market. There is a period of consolidation at the bottom as trading bounces within a certain range, and then finally there is a gradual upturn marking the shift to bullishness. As investors become more decisive about the bullishness, there is an increase in trading volume.

Pennant (Bullish)

A Pennant (Bullish) a Classic Pattern, is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue.

A Pennant (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two converging trendlines that form a narrow, tapering flag shape. The Pennant shape generally appears as a horizontal shape, rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend.

Apart from its shape, the Pennant is similar in all respects to the Flag. The Pennant is also similar to the Symmetrical Triangle or Wedge continuation patterns however; the Pennant is typically shorter in duration and flies horizontally.

Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristics for this pattern.

Trendlines

For Pennants, the price trendlines tend to converge. At the start of the Pennant, the price spikes, perhaps in response to a favorable product or earnings announcement. Following the price spike, the price fluctuations continue until they taper out and become decreasingly less volatile. This behavior appears on a price chart with the initial price spike forming what technical analysts refer to as the "mast" of the Pennant, followed by a triangular pennant shape.

Volume

As the Pennant develops, the volume tends to decrease. Martin Pring notes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained, "a pennant is in effect a very small triangle. If anything, volume tends to contract even more during the formation of a pennant than during that of a flag." However, as with Flags, when the Pennant completes you will often observe a sharp spike in volume.

Duration of the Pattern

In his book, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy identifies that Pennants and Flags are relatively short-term and should be completed within one to three weeks. He also notes that by comparison, the bullish patterns take longer to develop than the related bearish patterns.

Trading Considerations

Possibility of Price Reversal

In some rare cases, the price will break against the original price movement, and create a reversal trend. The pattern reversal may be signaled during the Pennant formation by an increase in volume, as opposed to the more typical decrease.

Duration of the Pattern

The duration of the pattern depends on the extent of the price fluctuations (consolidation). The greater the fluctuations, the longer a pattern will take to develop.

Target Price

It is commonly held that the length of the mast indicates the potential price increase. Like the Flag, the Pennant is considered to be a pause in an uptrend. Following the Pennant, the price typically jumps to replicate the height of the mast, while continuing in the direction of the inbound trend.

Criteria that Support

Volume

Volume should diminish noticeably as the pattern forms.

A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume over the course of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refute

Duration of the Pattern

According to Martin Pring, a pattern that exceeds "4 weeks to develop should ... be treated with caution". After 4 weeks, interest in the stock is likely to decrease to point that it is unlikely to continue in a strong uptrend.

No Volume Spike on Breakout

The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable and may actually reverse.

Underlying Behavior

This pattern is effectively a pause in an uptrend. The price has moved ahead of itself with a steep rise; therefore market activity takes a break before continuing the uptrend. This pause is reflected in the decreasing trading volume. Similarly, a spike in volume marks the resumption of the uptrend.

Indicators and Oscillators

Indicators
Indicators that are currently supported are based on moving average calculations.

Bullish or Bearish Indicators:

• Double Moving Average Crossover
• Price Crosses Moving Average
• Triple Moving Average Crossover

Oscillators
Oscillators are based on mathematical formulas that incorporate historical or recent prices of the stock.

Bullish or Bearish Oscillators:

• Bollinger Bands
• Commodity Channel Index
• Fast Stochastic
• KST (Short-term, Intermediate-term, Long-term)
• MACD
• Momentum
• Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• Slow Stochastic
• Williams %R