Rounded Bottom

A Rounded Bottom is a Classic Pattern, which is considered a bullish signal, indicating a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend.

Rounded Bottoms are elongated and U-shaped, and are sometimes referred to as rounding turns, bowls or saucers. The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks out above its moving average.
Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristic to look for in a Rounded Bottom.

Shape

The price pattern forms a gradual bowl shape. There should be an obvious bottom to the bowl. Price can fluctuate or be linear; however, the overall curve should be smooth and regular, without obvious spikes. For example, a V-shaped turn would not be considered a rounded bottom.

Volume

Volume tends to mirror the price pattern. Consequently, as the rounded bottom begins to descend, volume tends to decrease as bearishness wanes and investors become indecisive. Following a period of relative inactivity, at the bottom of the bowl, the price pattern starts its upward turn. As sentiment becomes more decisively bullish, volume tends to increase. When looking at volume in a rounded bottom pattern, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee note that "volume accelerates with the [price] trend until often it reaches a sort of climactic peak in a few days of almost 'vertical' price movement on the chart."

Duration of the Rounded Bottom

Rounded Bottoms are long-term patterns. Martin J. Pring identifies that the pattern can occur over a period of about 3 weeks, but can also be observed over several years.

Trading Considerations

Duration of the Pattern

The duration of the pattern indicates the significance of the price movement. John J. Murphy writes that rounded bottoms "are usually spotted on weekly or monthly charts that span several years. The longer they last, the more significant they become."

Target Price

Understandably, investors like to buy at the lowest possible price. However, even the most promising-looking rounded bottoms patterns can fail. To determine whether a downturn has bearish potential, watch the price at the bottom of the downturn. For a rounded bottom, the price tends to hover and bounce between an upper and lower price limit. You may observe this behavior for weeks or even years, as knowledgeable investors accumulate stock at the lowest possible price.

Clifford Pistolese advises that, "If well-informed, long-term investors are buying within the trading range, the eventual breakout will probably be to the upside." To manage risk, both Pistolese and Thomas N. Bulkowski suggest that investors buy stock when the breakout actually occurs.

Price may end higher or lower than it was at the beginning of the formation. After an upside breakout, technical analysts may use the starting price at the left side of the bowl to determine where the price may head. However, you will want to monitor the stock with interest.

Criteria that Support

Volume

Volume should parallel the price formation, dropping off as the pattern reaches the bottom, then increasing as the new uptrend is established.

Moving Average

Moving averages help to determine whether the rounded bottom has the potential for an upside breakout. For a rounded bottom, the price should cross the moving average when it begins to ascend. When this crossover occurs, the pattern is "confirmed".

There is an abundance of literature about moving averages if you are interested in understanding how they operate. In simple terms, the moving average can be used to detect a possible pattern success or failure. Typically, a moving average represents the closing price of a stock over a specified number of days, and can be used to predict the general direction of a stock. Depending on the type of stock, investors may decide to use a long, medium or short term moving average. For example, short duration patterns generally use a 50-day moving average, and longer patterns generally use a 200-day moving average.

Criteria that Refute

Shape

A formation is not a true rounded bottom when it does not involve a period of consolidation. Consolidation occurs following the descent when the price at the bottom of the pattern seems to bounce between an upper and lower limit. While, there are V-shaped patterns that yield successful returns, the rounded bottoms are a more reliable and predictable formation.

Underlying Behavior

A Rounded Bottom forms as investor sentiment shifts gradually from bearishness to bullishness. As the sentiment turns down toward the bottom, there is a drop off in trading volume due to the indecisiveness in the market. There is a period of consolidation at the bottom as trading bounces within a certain range, and then finally there is a gradual upturn marking the shift to bullishness. As investors become more decisive about the bullishness, there is an increase in trading volume.

Pennant (Bullish)

A Pennant (Bullish) a Classic Pattern, is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue.

A Pennant (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two converging trendlines that form a narrow, tapering flag shape. The Pennant shape generally appears as a horizontal shape, rather than one with a downtrend or uptrend.

Apart from its shape, the Pennant is similar in all respects to the Flag. The Pennant is also similar to the Symmetrical Triangle or Wedge continuation patterns however; the Pennant is typically shorter in duration and flies horizontally.

Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristics for this pattern.

Trendlines

For Pennants, the price trendlines tend to converge. At the start of the Pennant, the price spikes, perhaps in response to a favorable product or earnings announcement. Following the price spike, the price fluctuations continue until they taper out and become decreasingly less volatile. This behavior appears on a price chart with the initial price spike forming what technical analysts refer to as the "mast" of the Pennant, followed by a triangular pennant shape.

Volume

As the Pennant develops, the volume tends to decrease. Martin Pring notes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained, "a pennant is in effect a very small triangle. If anything, volume tends to contract even more during the formation of a pennant than during that of a flag." However, as with Flags, when the Pennant completes you will often observe a sharp spike in volume.

Duration of the Pattern

In his book, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy identifies that Pennants and Flags are relatively short-term and should be completed within one to three weeks. He also notes that by comparison, the bullish patterns take longer to develop than the related bearish patterns.

Trading Considerations

Possibility of Price Reversal

In some rare cases, the price will break against the original price movement, and create a reversal trend. The pattern reversal may be signaled during the Pennant formation by an increase in volume, as opposed to the more typical decrease.

Duration of the Pattern

The duration of the pattern depends on the extent of the price fluctuations (consolidation). The greater the fluctuations, the longer a pattern will take to develop.

Target Price

It is commonly held that the length of the mast indicates the potential price increase. Like the Flag, the Pennant is considered to be a pause in an uptrend. Following the Pennant, the price typically jumps to replicate the height of the mast, while continuing in the direction of the inbound trend.

Criteria that Support

Volume

Volume should diminish noticeably as the pattern forms.

A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume over the course of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refute

Duration of the Pattern

According to Martin Pring, a pattern that exceeds "4 weeks to develop should ... be treated with caution". After 4 weeks, interest in the stock is likely to decrease to point that it is unlikely to continue in a strong uptrend.

No Volume Spike on Breakout

The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable and may actually reverse.

Underlying Behavior

This pattern is effectively a pause in an uptrend. The price has moved ahead of itself with a steep rise; therefore market activity takes a break before continuing the uptrend. This pause is reflected in the decreasing trading volume. Similarly, a spike in volume marks the resumption of the uptrend.

Megaphone Bottom

A Megaphone Bottom also known as a Broadening Bottom is a Classic Pattern and considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current downtrend may reverse to form a new uptrend.

This rare formation can be recognized by the successively higher highs and lower lows, which form after a downward move. Usually, two higher highs between three lower lows form the pattern, which is completed when prices break above the second higher high and do not fall below it.

The pattern is completed when, usually on the third upswing within the pattern, prices break above the prior high but fail to fall below this level again.

Head and Shoulders Bottom

A Head and Shoulders Bottom is a Classic Pattern which is considered a bullish signal. It indicates a possible reversal of the current downtrend into a new uptrend.

The Head and Shoulders bottom is a popular pattern with investors. This pattern marks a reversal of a downward trend in a financial instrument's price.

Volume is absolutely crucial to a Head and Shoulders Bottom. An investor will be looking for increasing volumes at the point of breakout. This increased volume definitively marks the end of the pattern and the reversal of a downward trend in the price of a stock.

A perfect example of the Head and Shoulders Bottom has three sharp low points created by three successive reactions in the price of the financial instrument. It is essential that this pattern form following a major downtrend in the financial instrument's price.

The first point - the left shoulder - occurs as the price of the financial instrument in a falling market hits a new low and then rises in a minor recovery. The second point - the head happens when prices fall from the high of the left shoulder to an even lower level and then rise again. The third point - the right shoulder - occurs when prices fall again but don't hit the low of the head. Prices then rise again once they have hit the low of the right shoulder. The lows of the shoulders are definitely higher than that of the head and, in a classic formation, are often roughly equal to one another.

The neckline is a key element of this pattern. The neckline is formed by drawing a line connecting the two high price points of the formation. The first high point occurs at the end of the left shoulder and beginning of the downtrend to the head. The second marks the end of the head and the beginning of the downturn to the right shoulder. The neckline usually points down in a Head and Shoulders Bottom, but on rare occasions can slope up.

The pattern is complete when the resistance marked by the neckline is "broken". This occurs when the price of the stock, rising from the low point of the right shoulder moves up through the neckline. Many technical analysts only consider the neckline "broken" if the stock closes above the neckline.

The volume sequence should progress beginning with relatively heavy volume as prices descend to form the low point of the left shoulder. Once again, volume spikes as the stock hits a new low to form the point of the head. It is possible that volume at the head may be slightly lower than at the left shoulder. When the right shoulder is forming, however, volume should be markedly lighter as the price of the stock once again moves lower.

It is most important to watch volume at the point where the neckline is broken. For a true reversal, experts agree that heavy volume is essential.
Variations of the Head and Shoulders Bottom

There are a few notable variations for this pattern.

Multiple Head and Shoulders Patterns

Many valid Head and Shoulders patterns are not as well defined as the classical head with a shoulder on either side. It is not uncommon to see more than two shoulders and more than one head. A common version of a multiple Head and Shoulders pattern includes two left shoulders of more or less equal size, one head, and then two right shoulders that mimic the size and shape of the left shoulders.

Flat Shoulders

The classic Head and Shoulders pattern is made up of three sharply pointed components - the head and two shoulders. This is not always the case. Sometimes, the shoulders can lack sharp low points and instead be quite rounded. This does not affect the validity of the pattern.


Important Characteristics

Following are important characteristics for this pattern.

Symmetry

In a classic Head and Shoulders Bottom, the left and right shoulders hit their relative low points at approximately the same price and level. In addition, the shoulders are usually about the same distance from the head. Experts like to see symmetry but variations are not lethal to the validity of the pattern.

Volume

It is critical to watch the volume sequence as this pattern develops. Volume will usually be highest on the left shoulder and lowest on the right. Investors, looking to ensure that volume increases in the direction of the trend, should ensure that a "burst" in volume occurs at the time the neckline is broken.

Duration of Pattern

It is not unusual for a Head and Shoulders bottom to take several months to develop. Volume activity in stocks is characteristically less after a period of declining prices than after a bull market. Because of this lower volume, bottoms take longer to form and tend to be smaller than tops

Need for a Downtrend

This is a reversal pattern which marks the transition from a downtrend to an uptrend.

Slope of the Neckline

In a well-formed pattern, the slope will not be too steep, but don't automatically discount a formation with a steep neckline. Some experts believe an upward sloping neckline is more bullish than a downward sloping one. Others say slope has little to do with the stock's degree of bullishness.

Trading Considerations

Duration of the Pattern

Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to reach the Target Price. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration. The duration of the pattern is sometimes called the "width" or "length" of the pattern.

Target Price

The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

Inbound Trend

The inbound trend is an important characteristic of the pattern. A shallow inbound trend may indicate a period of consolidation before the price move indicated by the pattern begins. Look for an inbound trend that is longer than the duration of the pattern. A good rule of thumb is that the inbound trend should be at least two times the duration of the pattern.

Criteria that Support

Support and Resistance

Look for a region of support or resistance around the target price. A region of price consolidation or a strong Support and Resistance Line at or around the target price is a strong indicator that the price will move to that point.

Location of Moving Average

The Head and Shoulders Bottom should be below the Moving Average. Compare the location of the pattern to a Moving Average of appropriate length. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average.

Moving Average Trend

The Moving Average should change direction within the duration of the pattern and should head in the direction indicated by the pattern. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average.

Volume

Volume will usually be highest on the left shoulder and lowest on the right.

A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern.

Other Patterns

Other reversal patterns (such as Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Lines and Islands) that occur at the peaks and valleys indicate strong resistance at those points. The presence of these patterns inside a Head and Shoulders is a strong indication in support of this pattern.


Criteria that Refute

No Volume Spike on Confirmation

The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Location of Moving Average

If the Head and Shoulders Bottom is above the Moving Average then this pattern should be considered less reliable. Compare the location of the pattern to a Moving Average of appropriate length. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average.

Moving Average Trend

Look at the direction of the Moving Average Trend. For short duration patterns use a 50 day Moving Average, for longer patterns use a 200 day Moving Average. A Moving Average that is trending in the opposite direction to that indicated by the pattern is an indication that this pattern is less reliable.

Short Inbound Trend

An inbound trend that is significantly shorter than the pattern duration is an indication that this pattern should be considered less reliable.

Flag (Bullish)

A Flag (Bullish) is a Classic Pattern and considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue.

A Flag (Bullish) follows a steep or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), although it often has a slight downtrend.

The vertical uptrend, that precedes a Flag, may occur because of buyers' reactions to a favorable company earnings announcement, or a new product launch. The sharp price increase is sometimes referred to as the "flagpole" or "mast".

The rectangular flag shape is the product of what technical analysts refer to as consolidation. Consolidation occurs when the price seems to bounce between an upper and lower price limit. This might occur, for example, in the days following a positive product announcement, when the excitement is starting to subside, and fewer buyers are willing to pay the high price that was commanded just a few days before. But, at the same time, sellers are unwilling to sell below a lower support limit.

A bullish signal occurs when the price rebounds beyond the upper trendline of the Flag formation, and continues the original upward price movement. This is considered a pattern confirmation.

When speaking about Flags, technical analysts may use jargon and refer to the flag as "flying at half-mast". Visually, this reference is nothing like a flag at half-mast, such as on a day of national mourning. Instead, this term refers to the location of the flag - at the mid-point of what would otherwise be a continuous uptrend.


Important characteristics


Trendlines

Flags are very similar to Pennants. However, with a Flag, the price trendlines tend to run parallel, whereas with a Pennant, the price trendlines tend to converge.

Volume

As the Flag develops, the volume tends to decrease. Following a positive product announcement, the price may have reached an unexpected high, and fewer buyers will be willing to buy. Interest in the stock may resume, however, as prices drop, and sellers begin to lower their price. The increased activity explains why you will often notice a sharp spike in volume at the end of a Flag.

Duration of the Pattern

Martin Pring notes in his book, Technical Analysis Explained that "Flags can form in a period as short as 5 days or as longs as 3 to 5 weeks." John J. Murphy identifies that Flags "often last no longer than one or two weeks."

Trading Considerations

Possibility of Price Reversal

In some rare cases, the price will break against the original price movement, and create a reversal trend. The pattern reversal may be signaled during the Flag formation by a sharp increase in volume, as opposed to the more typical decrease.

Duration of the Pattern

The duration of the pattern depends on the extent of the price fluctuations (consolidation). The greater the fluctuations, the longer a pattern will take to develop.

Target Price

It is commonly held that the length of the flagpole indicates the potential price increase. When the Flag completes, the price typically jumps to replicate the height of the original flagpole, while continuing in the direction of the inbound trend.

Criteria that Support


Volume should diminish noticeably as the pattern forms.

A strong volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is a strong indicator in support of the potential for this pattern. The volume spike should be significantly above the average of the volume for the duration of the pattern. In addition, the volume over the course of the pattern should be declining on average.

Criteria that Refute

Duration of the Pattern

According to Martin Pring, a pattern that exceeds "4 weeks to develop should ... be treated with caution". After 4 weeks, interest in the stock is likely to decrease to point that it is unlikely to continue in a strong uptrend.

No Volume Spike on Breakout

The lack of a volume spike on the day of the pattern confirmation is an indication that this pattern may not be reliable. In addition, if the volume has remained constant, or was increasing, over the duration of the pattern, then this pattern should be considered less reliable and may actually reverse.

Long Inbound Trend

Shabacker writes that, "When a mast is long ... and it's Flag relatively small, we should naturally expect the movement to be pretty well exhausted when its indicated objective is reached." He suggests that when you observe this formation, and a price continuation occurs, it is best to use the flagpole as a "yard-stick" to indicate the level at which to "take profits, step aside, and watch for further chart developments."

Underlying Behavior

This pattern is effectively a pause in an uptrend. The price has gotten ahead of itself with a steep rise; therefore market activity takes a break before continuing the uptrend. This pause is reflected in the decreasing trading volume. Similarly, a spike in volume marks the resumption of the uptrend.